Saturday, November 8, 2008

Calzaghe and Jones weigh-in

Roy Jones Jr and Welshman Joe Calzaghe appeared together for their official weigh-in at Madison Square Garden ahead of their highly-anticipated light-heavyweight Ring Magazine title bout.

The undefeated Calzaghe meets Jones in New York in a showdown that could define both their careers. Both Calzaghe and Jones weighed in at 174.5lbs.

Jones said: "This is the best fight to happen this year. I thank God for the opportunity. I thank you all for being here. Cheer your man on. Roy Jones is back and I'm ready to go."

His opponent, The Pride of Wales, said of his opponent: "Roy's a great fighter. Madison Square Garden is a great place.You're going to see one awesome show tomorrow night and I'll still be undefeated. I'll tell you that."

Calzaghe, 45-0 with 32 KOs, expects both he and Jones to be in top form for their bout as US veteran Jones, 52-4 with 38 KOs, tries to return from years of struggling.

Jones, who at 39 is three years older than Calzaghe, has won all five of his previous fights at the Garden. He won the middleweight title 15 years ago, the heavyweight title five years ago and dominated at various light heavyweight division bouts.

Enzo questions Jones' engine

Roy Jones Jr's recent inactivity will put him at a big disadvantage when he climbs into the ring against Joe Calzaghe on Saturday night, according to the Welshman's father and trainer Enzo.
Jones (52-4, 38 KOs), an eight-time, four-weight world champion, has fought only once a year since two devastating knockout losses to Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson in 2004.
"You can climb Mount Everest 10 times, you can lift 150,000 kilos of weight but three years out of the ring at the wrong time of his career wasn't particularly beneficial," Enzo Calzaghe said.
Calzaghe senior believes that is not enough to keep the now 39-year-old American sharp enough for his undefeated son Joe (45-0, 32 KOs) at Madison Square Garden, regardless of Jones' past achievements.
"You can't put that engine back in there, it can only disappear from you," he added. "So when that engine needs to be revved, is it there? So far I've seen nothing there and please tell me if it has.
"He can't acquire something he's never had before.
"We know he's fast off combinations. Three, four, five shots, and that's over for that period of time, but Joe will be throwing, three, six, eight, 10, 15 and that's the difference.
"Joe can go 12 rounds doing that and the longer the fight goes on the faster it gets and more powerful it gets.
"Jones knows that and his plan is to counter but that can't be countered."

In touching distance of the Holy Grail: Calzaghe versus Jones

Joe Calzaghe and Roy Jones Jnr face off in a light heavyweight match up this coming weekend; a true boxing ‘Event’ in every sense of the word. For both fighters the outcome presents the opportunity for them to grasp hold of their very own Holy Grail. Joe Calzaghe enters the bout looking to end his career both on a high and undefeated. His opponent, the mercurially talented Jones Jnr seeks to redeem his legacy; tainted mainly by the KO to Glen Johnson.

Whilst Roy ruled the world; as pound-for-pound claimant, for many years, his reputation was undeniably tarnished by KO defeats to Tarver and Johnson. Jones, for so long untouchable, was brought down to earth with a bump and subsequently has only displayed glimpses of his talent in brief cameos.

Roy is currently on a 3 fight win streak, but this is about the only good news. These 3 fights have been spread over 3 years. Two of the opponents were limited, one faded and arguably bloated; a threat in name only. Against Trinidad, Roy did show excellent hand speed and decent power; wobbling and decking Felix on a couple of occasions. These facts do however need to be considered against a backdrop of Trinidad making his name a welterweight champion, with a penchant for trips to the canvas. Felix was once a seek and destroy artist and he did manage to carry his power up to middleweight, but the bout at light heavyweight allowed Roy the opportunity to fight as if in an exhibition bout.

It is not surprising that Roy understands the size of the challenge facing him tomorrow night. The heavyweight match up against Ruiz, by comparison, was a virtual walk in the park! Jones does though sound confident; he seems to have found ‘the love’ for boxing once again and at the same time the fans and media have warmed to the ’08 RRJ. The Jones camp are spinning the line that the reduction in weight from heavyweight to light-heavyweight left him drained; thus he suffered two, once unthinkable, KO defeats.

Let there be no mistake; in his heyday Jones was the pound-for-pound supremo. The list of accomplishments goes on go; 4 weights champion, beating amongst others Hopkins, Toney, McCullum, Johnson. The facts and figures do not really do justice to the legacy; it was the performances, the speed and athletism which set Jones apart. Even now, Jones has skills; timing, speed and an innate ability to gauge distance.

What Jones needs tomorrow night though is a tank full to the brim with gas. Time and tide wait for no-man; Jones legs no longer carry him around the ring for 3 minutes a round and the punch output has also diminished. So, how does Jones win this fight? That is a big, big question; even for a fighter such as Jones. To my mind; he has two routes to go down.

Route one: Jones can gamble! He can go out there and stick to his pre-fight boasts of going toe-to-toe. Roy’s hands are still exceptionally quick and Calzaghe is no stranger to the canvas. Perhaps he can stun Calzaghe and then follow up with one of his blistering combinations. This would be a dangerous, dare I say all or nothing, tactic; but Jones has produced stunning victories before (see Montell Griffin II).

Route two: Alternatively, Jones can use his speed to pot shot and counter Calzaghe; Hopkins certainly had some success with these tactics. Does a hyped up and frenetic Calzaghe then blow himself out; allowing Jones to come on later? The catch here is; Jones might not have enough let himself to get over the finishing line. One thing we do know about Calzaghe is that he can produce massive output and maintain this over the championship distance.

Joe Calzaghe, apparently, is reaching the end of his fistic journey and is aiming (allegedly) to bow out undefeated (46-0). Looking back now, it seems crazy that it has taken Joe so long to receive the sort of recognition he deserves. Year upon year Joe sought his defining fight, despite have beaten numerous former champions along the way. Then, along came Jeff Lacy; who was heavily favoured to end the world championship reign.

Of course, as we all now know, Joe hit his pugilistic zenith and boxed, bashed and befuddled Lacy to lopsided points defeat. In truth, the fight should have been stopped after 9 or 10 rounds; but Lacy was allowed to struggle through to the final bell. Joe has subsequently added the thrilling defeat of Kessler to his resume and just for good measure sneaked a points win over the ever youthful ‘Hoppo’. This win in particular now has added quodos; after Hopkins beat the next big thing Kelly Pavlik.

Looking back, whilst it was not one of Joe’s prettiest performances, on the night he did what he needed to do (as he has always done). Additionally, Hopkins definitely struggled to impose his style and will onto the Welsh Dragon; seeking several minutes respite (due to phantom low blows). If this is to be Joe’s last fight, it will be a final attempt to prove the ‘haters’ wrong; that he is not just a happy slapper; but that his style does have substance. What better stage and opponent could he ask for – this is course a rhetorical question!

This bout promises to be not just a fight, but also an event. Should Joe win then he cements his place in the Hall of Fame. For Jones, perhaps he took things for granted whilst he reigned at the top of the game. Now he will tell you, that should he lose tomorrow, it does not mean anything. Well, do not be fooled by this for a second; he wants this and he wants it bad!

Finally, on a personal note; I wish Joe all the luck in the world. I have seen him box on numerous occasions and he always raises the roof, a true warrior and entertainer. I envisage a late round stoppage for Joe; but would not be surprised to experience a few heart stopping moment’s a-la Bryon Mitchell along the way!

Bombs away!!

Roy Jones Jr speaks out on Barack Obama ahead of Joe Calzaghe clash

If Roy Jones Jr. needed anymore motivation for his fight with Joe Calzaghe for this Saturday, then he got it earlier this week when he, along with the World witnessed Barack Obama elected as America's first black president.

A day after witnessing Obama seal his bid to be President by beating John McCain, Jones Jr., inspired by the victory plans on using the inspiration as motivation, telling Reuters: "I want to say I am more proud to be an American now, more so than I have ever been in my life"

Jones Jr. believe Calzaghe is the Pound for Pound best fighter, a title he once held. Obama who ran on the platform of change, is motivating Jones Jr. to change the Pound for Pound landscape. Jones Jr. stated: "I've got another guy here who is the best pound-for-pound fighter right now, but I love change. This country's about change, and I'm about change,"

Jones Jr. faces Calzaghe this Saturday at Madison Square on HBO Pay-Per-view. Its a fight you won't want to miss.

Calzaghe, Jones meet in unavoidable collision Saturday

NEW YORK -- The powers that be have modestly billed Saturday's little get-together at Madison Square Garden as the "Battle of the Superpowers: Worlds Will Collide," although almost everyone, including the superpowers themselves, seems to agree boxing might have been better served had these particular worlds collided eight or 10 years earlier.

But in those days, you couldn't have gotten Joe Calzaghe out of Cardiff, at the point of a gun, and Roy Jones Jr. was so determined to retain his tripartite claim to the world's light heavyweight titles that he spent years fighting a seemingly endless supply of mandatory challengers until he finally decided to challenge himself -- and when he did, the opponent was not the undefeated Calzaghe, but rather then-heavyweight titlist John Ruiz.
Ask either man, and he'll tell you how much he wanted to fight the other back then, but the fact remains that while the Welshman was defending against the likes of Rick Thornberry, Richie Woodhall, Will McIntyre and Tocker Pudwill without ever leaving the British Isles, Jones was doing the same thing by saddling HBO with his fights against Richard Frazier, David Telesco and Richard Hall.
"Of course, if they'd fought then, there wouldn't have been the kind of money they're making now," said Alton Merkerson, who has trained Jones since his amateur days. "Roy was willing, but Calzaghe wouldn't come over here to fight him."
The fact remains that even as he talked the talk, Jones was every bit as much the homebody as Calzaghe, spurning lucrative offers to fight Steve Collins in Dublin (instead, he faced Tony Thornton in his hometown of Pensacola) and Dariusz Michalczewski in Germany (instead fighting Glen Kelly in Miami).
Saturday's bout will be Jones' 57th as a pro, and he hasn't had a single fight outside the United States since the 1988 Seoul Olympics, where he came controversially short of a gold medal.
Meanwhile, Calzaghe addressed the delay at Wednesday's New York news conference, saying, "They accused me of hiding behind my belts, but believe me, I wasn't."
Calzaghe admitted he wasn't exactly consumed by thoughts of moving up to fight Jones but said he did badly want to legitimize his claim as the world's top super middleweight by consolidating the titles.
"I was struggling along, fighting in small arenas and getting no respect. It took literally years, until the Jeff Lacy fight [in 2006], before I was finally able to do it," Calzaghe said. "Everything seemed to have changed with that fight, but then my next two opponents [Sakio Bika and Peter Manfredo] were guys I didn't even want to fight. I seemed to have lost all the momentum I'd gained in the Lacy fight, so I finally went to my promoter and told him I wanted to fight Mikkel Kessler and nobody else."
Facing the unbeaten Kessler over the objections of promoter Frank Warren, Calzaghe added the WBA and WBC titles (he had by then already been relieved of the IBF version he had won from Lacy), Then, earlier this year, he ventured across the Atlantic for the first time and, fighting as a light heavyweight, defeated Bernard Hopkins. Immediately after that April fight last he was approached by Jones, who said, in essence, "Let's do it."
Then, earlier this year, Calzaghe ventured across the Atlantic for the first time and, fighting as a light heavyweight, defeated Bernard Hopkins.
It was immediately after the Hopkins fight on April 19 that Jones approached Calzaghe and said, in essence, "Let's do it."
"Joe has been accused of picking his fights," said Enzo Calzaghe, the boxer's father and trainer. "But it was Joe came to me, and he said, 'I want to fight Roy Jones, I want to fight him in America and I want to fight at Madison Square Garden.'"
Jones was fresh off his January win over Felix Trinidad, which capped a three-fight redemptive streak that followed a disastrous string of three ugly losses in 2004 and '05 that appeared to signal the end of his competitive career.
When Jones followed back-to-back knockout losses to Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson with a points loss to Tarver, Calzaghe said, "Everyone seemed to write him off. I know I did."
"Yeah, but I made up for it with three straight wins," Jones recalled with a grin. "I beat a big guy [6-footer Prince Ajamu], I beat a little guy [Trinidad] and I beat an undefeated guy [Anthony Hanshaw]."
The negotiations that began in Las Vegas right after the Hopkins fight continued over the next few months and were conducted almost exclusively by cell phone. In fact, Calzaghe and Jones reached their final agreement with a series of text messages. By the time they were ready to announce the bout, Calzaghe had jettisoned Warren, and Saturday's fight is being jointly promoted by the fighters themselves.
Calzaghe is 36, Jones pushing 40, and neither man any longer owns a recognized world title, but say what you will about the Ring belt (and our preference would be to say as little about it as possible), at least the man who walks away with it Saturday night won't face any mandatory obligations.
Although Calzaghe conceded Wednesday, "I've made it no secret that this will probably be my last fight," he added that he would make no hard and fast decisions about his future until afterward.
Meanwhile, consider this: Calzaghe did his own negotiating -- and the contract calls for a rematch in Wales should he lose.
"But we didn't come this far just to f--- it up now," Enzo Calzaghe said.
Oddly, Jones, who has been talking retirement for at least 10 years, isn't waffling at all this time around.
"No matter what happens, this is definitely not my last fight," he said.
One possibility is Hopkins, who has been spoiling for a rematch with Jones for the past 15 years and who enhanced his own credibility with his stunning domination of Kelly Pavlik in Atlantic City three weeks ago. He undoubtedly will be praying for a Jones win Saturday.
"I'm sure he will be, and Bernard is definitely a possibility," Jones said with a twinkle in his eye. "But so is a fight at Millennium Stadium [in Wales]."
The rematch clause, of course, kicks in only with a Calzaghe loss. Jones sounds as if he's counting on it.

Joe's the greatest says Jones Jnr

JOE Calzaghe is the greatest pound for pound fighter on the planet, according to four weight world champion Roy Jones Jr.

Jones and Calzaghe went nose to nose at a press conference yesterday at the world famous BB King Blues Club, where Jones revealed that Joe is the only fighter he was interested in facing at the age of 39, because Calzaghe stands head and shoulders above the other top names in the sport.

“Whoever wins this fight is the best boxer in the world right now, without a doubt. No-one else can come close,” he said.

“For me, Joe is the best pound for pound fighter in the world now. But you know I love to change things.

“He is a great fighter and right now he is the best around. Who else has got a record of 45 fights undefeated?

“I won’t take that away from him, I can’t. No-one else has got a record like that.

“Joe is the man now, that’s why it was all about where he wanted to fight. I had to seek him out for this fight, it was the only one I wanted.”

Calzaghe was delighted to hear Jones giving him such praise and revealed he is keen to prove that his assessment is correct.

“It’s pretty great to hear people like Roy saying that, I had long since given up on getting any credit in America,” Joe told the Argus.

“Listen, I don’t go shouting about being the best in the world, I’m not that type of person or fighter.

“I like to think that my record speaks for itself, but I think most people would rank me in the top two or three best in the world.

“But to hear Roy Jones say I am the number one, that is brilliant.

“And on Saturday I will prove he’s right, because I am going to knock him out.”

Mark Taffett, the senior vice president of HBO sport, endorsed the notion that Calzaghe is on top of the world at the age of 36.

“On Saturday night we will see the two most heralded fighters in the world today collide,” he said.

“Joe Calzaghe is the gold standard in boxing, a future Hall of Fame boxer and the best of the best right now.

“Roy Jones has earned his nickname of Superman and the stage is now set for a truly memorable and special night.”

This was a press conference that largely covered old ground and being that it was in America, dragged on for far too long, so much so that Calzaghe told the Argus that he won’t do any more interviews before the fight.

“I have reached my limit now, I’ve got nothing new to say to the American writers and I want to focus, I am getting in the zone, I feel like what I am going to do on Saturday is going to be really special,” he said.

Jones was more reserved than he’d been earlier in the week, though he did reveal exactly how this fight was put together. “When we met, we got it done in ten minutes, you know that,” he said.

“But before that, we were discussing everything over text messages, back and forth, back and forth,” he said.

“Joe was 100% a man of his word. He promised we’d do the fight, said he wanted to come to New York and that is how it has turned out. I guess that’s pretty rare, two of the best fighters ever texting to get the fight made.”

Calzaghe vs. Jones Jnr: Can Jones Jnr upset the odds?

When Roy Jones Jnr hit the deck against Glen Johnson in 2004 and took several minutes to get back up again, few would have predicted that four years later he would be preparing for one of the biggest fights of his career. When he lost a wide decision to Antonio Tarver the following year, giving Tarver a 2-1 record over Jones Jnr (though many feel it should be 3-0), it seemed that Jones Jnr was completely finished. He went into that fight with one intention: to not get knocked out. That he achieved this was one thing, that he seemed to be genuinely happy that he had achieved this is quite another. When a four weight world champion and nailed-on all-time great fighter is content to merely survive 12 rounds with the talented – if unpredictable and short of the greatness he professes – Antonio Tarver, you have to question if there is any point to him continuing to fight.

Comeback wins over Prince Badi Ajamu and Anthony Hanshaw did precious little to silence those who were calling for Roy to retire. Neither fighter would have survived 6 rounds with a peak version of Jones Jnr. There then followed, earlier this year, a convincing victory in what was billed as a ‘superfight’ with former three weight world champion, Felix Trinidad.. It seems that this third victory on the spin, following as they did his three crushing defeats, has given some fans and even pundits a real belief that Jones Jnr is once again a fighter able to compete at the top level of the sport.

The question is, are these fans and pundits reading too much into the win over Trinidad? The first thing to factor in is that the bulk of Trinidad’s career was spent fighting at 147lbs, some 23lbs below the weight at which he fought Roy. Whilst Trinidad was also a very successful light-middleweight, his record above that weight is a distinctly unimpressive 3-2. What’s more, those two defeats were not merely losses but total humiliations. Bernard Hopkins countered Trinidad at will for 12 rounds before brutally stopping him, whilst Winky Wright put on a clinic to win a shutout unanimous decision. Trinidad then disappeared from boxing for almost three years – that’s right, THREE YEARS – before returning to face Jones Jnr. So not only was Jones Jnr facing a man naturally significantly smaller than him, but also a man who had grown a layer of ring rust inches thick.

Whilst Jones Jnr looked good in beating Trinidad, the fact that he was unable to stop him has to be a worry for Roy and his fans. Trinidad had been stopped by Hopkins, who is a hurtful but not concussive puncher. Tito has also been on the floor many times in his career, even at 147lbs, and has been put there by fighters with nothing like a peak Jones Jnr’s power or ability. Sure, Roy was able to drop him twice, but would a peak Jones Jnr have needed to go to the cards? Would he have dropped a few rounds against a former welterweight who had failed to win a round in his last two big fights? The answer is a resounding ‘no’.

So why is it that there are those who believe Roy can turn back the clock and beat the undefeated Joe Calzaghe? It could perhaps be a question of the heart ruling the head, of hope prevailing over common sense. Or is it not so much what they see in Roy as what they see in the man that will be stood in the opposite corner on Saturday night?

On the face of it, Calzaghe looks a fairly formidable opponent. He has won 45 consecutive fights, and in the past three years has scored arguably his three biggest victories over Jeff Lacy, Mikkel Kessler and Bernard Hopkins. Like a fine wine, Calzaghe seems to have improved with age. Whilst not as explosive as he used to be, he has become a really intelligent fighter, able to adapt his gameplan mid-fight if things are going against him. However, in his last outing against Hopkins, Calzaghe was made to sweat on a split decision. Hopkins’ spoiling, counter-punching tactics caused Calzaghe a lot of problems, and in the end it was only his superior workrate and ability to adjust his tactics to force Hopkins to fight at a high pace that got him the verdict. Although one judge and some pundits saw the fight for Hopkins, I felt that Calzaghe did enough to win the fight by a three point margin, in spite of suffering a shock knockdown in the opening round.

The fact that Hopkins was able to floor and hurt Calzaghe with that straight right hand in the first round seems to be a major factor in some pre-fight predictions. After all, Roy can counterpunch with the best of them, and in his pomp had one of the best right hands in the business. However, what Roy doesn’t have – and never has had – is Hopkins’ throwback defence and impeccable countering technique. Roy’s ability to land the big counter was based on freakish speed and reflexes, attributes which – unlike pure technique – fade with time.

Can Roy hurt Calzaghe? Of course he can. Can he floor him? Again, it has to be considered a possibility. Can he hurt him badly enough to score the KO? That is the one factor that some picking in favour of Jones Jnr think could be in his favour. But Roy hasn’t stopped an opponent now in over 6 years, and Calzaghe – floored only three times in his career – has never looked like being stopped. The punch that Hopkins floored him with was a textbook right hand, straight down the pipe. It landed flush on Calzaghe as he was advancing, thus increasing the force of the punch. If Calzaghe’s chin was questionable, he would not have recovered so quickly from such a shot. Anyone who has seen the punch from Byron Mitchell that put Calzaghe down for the first time in his career will know that his ability to take a shot and recover cannot be questioned.

The one intangible is whether or not Calzaghe will get old overnight. Although he is not a classic brawler, Calzaghe has never been especially difficult to hit and cannot resist a tear-up. Is it possible that all the punches he has taken over the years will suddenly catch up with him when Roy lands with a big right hand? Joe is no spring chicken himself, and at nearly 37 years old he is right at the end of his career. It is always possible that Calzaghe will get old overnight, but that cannot be the basis for a prediction. In his last fight Calzaghe showed that he can take a shot and recover well from being hurt. In Jones Jnr’s last fight he showed that he can still put an opponent down, but that he no longer has the killer instinct to finish off his man. Based on those facts, a Jones Jnr stoppage looks unlikely, unless Joe does indeed get old in the ring.

What about a points victory for Jones Jnr? Again, some fans and pundits point at the early lead that Hopkins was able to build up against Calzaghe before running out of gas. I have heard some people say that Jones Jnr can use his speed and power to land some hurtful counters early on, and spend the later rounds trying to avoid the relentless Calzaghe. However, such an interpretation ignores some important facts.

Firstly, the fight with Hopkins didn’t change purely because the ageing B-Hop was unable to maintain his early fight momentum or because he didn’t have the quickness to avoid engaging with Calzaghe. The fight changed in large part because Calzaghe adapted his tactics after dropping the opening few rounds. He doubled the jab and moved away to avoid being countered. He also upped the pace to a tempo that Hopkins simply could not cope with. B-Hop threw significantly more punches in the second half of the fight than the first, in spite of dominating the first half and being dominated in the second. This was purely because Calzaghe did what very few others have been able to do against Bernard and managed to dictate how the majority of the fight was fought. A very similar thing happened in Calzaghe’s fight with Kessler, where he was behind early on before adapting to move away in the second half of the fight.

Secondly, those who think that Jones Jnr can use his speed in the second half of the fight to protect any early lead he has established are missing two crucial points. Calzaghe himself is no slouch, and has tremendous stamina. Thus far nobody has successfully eluded Joe for more than a few seconds of a round. Additionally, in Roy’s recent fights he has increasingly spent long periods of time sat on the ropes rather than moving around the ring. This has been fine against an old and rusty Trinidad and second tier opponents like Hanshaw, but against Calzaghe that simply won’t do. It will only serve to play into Joe’s hands if Jones Jnr is unable to continually present a moving target. The question then becomes whether or not Roy is capable of presenting a moving target for the full 12 rounds. Recent evidence – and by recent I mean the whole of the past 4 years – suggests that he will not be able to do so. If he cannot do that then it is impossible to see how he will stop Calzaghe catching up with him and scoring frequently with his quick combinations, and Roy doesn’t have the workrate to come out on top of such exchanges.

It seems to me that those who are confidently predicting a win for Jones Jnr have brought into the pre-fight hype. By that I mean they are seeing this as a fight between a (nearly) prime Roy Jones Jnr and a (nearly) prime Joe Calzaghe. That would be a hell of a fight, and one in which Roy would have to be a very big favourite. However, the fact is that all the evidence points to the fact that Roy has fallen a hell of a lot further from his brilliant best than Calzaghe has from his. Roy no longer has the speed or the stamina to keep away from Calzaghe for any length of time. He no longer has the workrate to outland Calzaghe when they are in close quarters. He does not have the killer instinct to finish Calzaghe off if he does manage to hurt him, and an outright KO looks highly unlikely given Roy’s recent record and Calzaghe’s proven chin. These statements are not plucked from thin air, they are based on observing both fighters closely over the last few years.

The only hope I can see for Roy Jones Jnr in this fight is that he can either somehow turn back the clock by at least 5 years, or that Calzaghe gets old overnight. The first of those possibilities seems remote, and the second only a little more likely. Fortunately for Roy his legacy as one of the greatest is already secure, and listening to him I get the impression that he is happy just to be fighting at such a high level again. But I fear that those who are boldly predicting a Jones Jnr win will be sorely disappointed come Sunday morning when they realise that they let what they wanted to happen cloud their analysis of what was likely to happen.